Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Doyle, Brenton
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.248 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.256
0.269
0.285
0.300
0.314
wOBA
0.295
0.319
0.345
0.372
0.396
ISO
0.079
0.099
0.120
0.142
0.161
K%
24.7%
26.4%
28.2%
30.0%
31.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
51
+31 vs proj
Barrel%4.1%
37
-23 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
Exit velocity87.0
33
Hard-hit%34.9%
29
-31 vs proj
K%29.0%
17
xBA0.309
36
xSLG0.436
26
xwOBA0.248
7
-37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · CF
19
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
93
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · CF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
65
Bolts7.0 · CF
67
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
49
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.1% · rebadged research
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
84
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
90 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.055 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.042 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 546 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.303 | 0.277 to 0.352 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.101 to 0.233 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 4.4% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 37.0% to 49.6% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 26.3% | 22.9% to 32.4% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.5% to 9.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.301 | 0.262 to 0.356 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
459 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
1196 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.253 |
| K% | 24.3% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |