Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Lee, Brooks
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.275
0.289
0.304
0.316
wOBA
0.357
0.377
0.398
0.419
0.438
ISO
0.145
0.160
0.176
0.192
0.207
K%
15.0%
16.1%
17.4%
18.8%
19.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.3%
22
Barrel%4.2%
38
Bat speed67.8
25
Exit velocity86.5
27
Hard-hit%30.9%
16
-19 vs proj
K%18.0%
75
xBA0.274
13
xSLG0.417
19
xwOBA0.271
17
-26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
72
Arm Strength85.3 · SS
46
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-4.4 · SS
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · SS
76
Sprint Speed26.4 · SS
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
63
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.380 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.381 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
59
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.094 |
| Sample | 239 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 487 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.269 to 0.350 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.110 to 0.220 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 2.8% to 6.8% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 31.4% to 44.2% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 15.8% | 15.0% to 22.8% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.8% to 10.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.248 to 0.324 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
234 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
508 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |