Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Lee, Brooks
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.273 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.283 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.272
0.283
0.294
0.304
wOBA
0.324
0.336
0.350
0.363
0.375
ISO
0.162
0.172
0.183
0.195
0.205
K%
14.4%
15.3%
16.2%
17.2%
18.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
24
Exit velocity87.9
50
Hard-hit%33.9%
29
xBA0.273
11
xSLG0.413
17
xwOBA0.273
20
-28 vs proj
BB%6.0%
22
Bat speed68.0
29
K%16.0%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
61
Arm Strength85.3 · 3B
34
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
84
Range Runs-2.1 · 3B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 3B
57
SB Success Rate83.3% · 3B
59
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
24
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
89
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample
91
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.397 · insufficient sample
0
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315 · validated
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
277 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| Sample | 564 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 487 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.269 to 0.350 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.111 to 0.220 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 2.8% to 6.8% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 31.4% to 44.2% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 15.8% | 15.0% to 22.8% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.8% to 10.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.248 to 0.324 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
234 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
508 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |