Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026

Baldwin, Drake

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.334 xwOBA
Range
0.301 to 0.382
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced regular Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
93
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
85
Defense4 metrics
47
Speed2 metrics
18
Plate skills10 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.344
xwOBA current pace0.379
xwOBA rolling p500.365
Observed weight61%
xwOBA
0.339 0.351 0.365 0.379 0.391
wOBA
0.350 0.366 0.384 0.401 0.417
ISO
0.156 0.169 0.184 0.198 0.212
K%
17.5% 18.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.3%
97 +29 vs proj
Exit velocity91.6
90
Hard-hit%51.4%
94
xBA0.369
88
xSLG0.687
92
xwOBA0.379
96 +22 vs proj
BB%10.3%
71 +22 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
88
K%22.1%
51 -35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
51
Catcher Throwing-3.0 · C
4
Framing Runs1.1 · C
65
Pop Time1.9 · C
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · C
15
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
20
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390 · validated
7
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Baldwin, Drake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.379 2026-07-06: 0.3722026-07-07: 0.3732026-07-08: 0.3762026-07-09: 0.3752026-07-10: 0.3732026-07-11: 0.3742026-07-12: 0.3722026-07-13: 0.3732026-07-14: 0.3792026-07-15: 0.3792026-07-16: 0.3792026-07-17: 0.379 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Drake Baldwin's tools (75) outpace production (80) by -5 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-9.0° Current 29° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Baldwin, Drake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 72% of plotted batted ballsCenter 72%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 335 CF 400 RF 325 2026-03-16 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 14.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 18.02026-03-16 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 29.02026-03-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 25.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 5.02026-03-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 58.3 / LA 15.02026-03-20 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 6.02026-03-20 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -8.02026-03-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -6.02026-03-22 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 3.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 1.02026-03-24 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 24.02026-03-24 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 16.02026-03-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 21.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -4.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 49.8 / LA -34.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 3.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 8.02026-03-29 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 18.02026-03-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 24.02026-03-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 11.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · popup · EV 80.1 / LA 80.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 29.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -16.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · popup · EV 92.0 / LA 61.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -18.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 22.02026-03-31 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 26.02026-04-01 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 90.4 / LA 18.02026-04-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 20.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 23.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 20.02026-04-02 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -19.02026-04-02 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 55.6 / LA -27.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 57.02026-04-02 · single · EP · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 1.02026-04-03 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 59.8 / LA -53.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -16.02026-04-03 · field out · FC · popup · EV 78.0 / LA 58.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 16.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA -23.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 41.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -31.02026-04-05 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 22.02026-04-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -24.02026-04-05 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 2.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -8.02026-04-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 4.02026-04-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 34.02026-04-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.6 / LA 17.02026-04-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 8.02026-04-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 44.02026-04-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 16.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -22.02026-04-08 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 11.02026-04-10 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -29.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -32.02026-04-10 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 48.4 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 26.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 21.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · popup · EV 66.4 / LA 81.02026-04-12 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -7.02026-04-12 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 34.02026-04-12 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 50.6 / LA 13.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 23.02026-04-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -10.02026-04-14 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.5 / LA 55.02026-04-14 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 29.02026-04-14 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 17.02026-04-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 4.02026-04-15 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 9.02026-04-17 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 13.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · popup · EV 76.3 / LA 59.02026-04-17 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -7.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -3.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 5.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -10.02026-04-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 3.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 21.02026-04-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 41.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 16.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 33.02026-04-20 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 2.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 44.02026-04-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 18.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.3 / LA -19.02026-04-21 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 27.02026-04-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 28.02026-04-22 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 8.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · popup · EV 91.8 / LA 62.02026-04-23 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.3 / LA 39.02026-04-24 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -5.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 41.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 3.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 18.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 1.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 18.02026-04-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.4 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 9.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 6.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 55.8 / LA -86.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 67.6 / LA -52.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · popup · EV 88.2 / LA 63.02026-04-29 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 12.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA -8.02026-04-29 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 11.02026-04-29 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -11.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 14.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 40.02026-05-02 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 28.02026-05-02 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 17.02026-05-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 7.02026-05-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 4.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 5.02026-05-03 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 74.6 / LA -10.02026-05-04 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 31.02026-05-04 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -35.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA -19.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 46.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 0.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 36.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -13.02026-05-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 4.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 79.6 / LA 28.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 10.02026-05-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 4.02026-05-09 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 3.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -14.02026-05-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 28.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 52.02026-05-12 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -5.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.6 / LA -13.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 19.02026-05-13 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 30.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -9.02026-05-14 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 24.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 32.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 31.02026-05-15 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 110.7 / LA 13.02026-05-16 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 22.02026-05-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.5 / LA 10.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 38.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 34.02026-05-17 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 10.02026-06-20 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 1.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 80.1 / LA 55.02026-06-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 44.6 / LA -58.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -18.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.5 / LA -54.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 4.02026-06-30 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 70.3 / LA 22.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 56.02026-07-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 59.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA -10.02026-07-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 73.8 / LA 16.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Baldwin, Drake · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.0 mph Hard swing rate 52% Whiff / swing 20% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Baldwin, Drake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 33%33%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.044
wOBA Δ+0.049
Sample339 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances436----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3340.301 to 0.382+/- 0.041
ISO0.1510.121 to 0.235+/- 0.057
Barrel%6.2%5.0% to 8.8%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%46.7%37.8% to 52.6%+/- 7.4%
K%15.2%13.0% to 21.9%+/- 4.4%
BB%8.5%6.1% to 11.6%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2870.273 to 0.340+/- 0.033
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

102 career PA

xwOBA0.216
K%11.3%
BB%5.4%
Barrel4.8%
vs RHP

380 career PA

xwOBA0.241
K%10.0%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.6%