Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Baldwin, Drake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.344 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.418 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.382 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.353
0.367
0.382
0.398
0.411
wOBA
0.418
0.438
0.460
0.481
0.501
ISO
0.177
0.193
0.211
0.228
0.244
K%
15.9%
17.2%
18.6%
20.1%
21.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.4%
77
+34 vs proj
Barrel%12.7%
99
+33 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
88
Exit velocity93.0
95
Hard-hit%53.8%
95
+17 vs proj
K%20.3%
60
-26 vs proj
xBA0.398
95
xSLG0.767
97
xwOBA0.418
99
+28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
79
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
9
Framing Runs-0.5 · C
45
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · C
39
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
28
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
57
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.386 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.394 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.084 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.125 |
| Sample | 236 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 436 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.334 | 0.301 to 0.382 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.151 | 0.121 to 0.235 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 5.0% to 8.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.7% | 37.8% to 52.6% | +/- 7.4% |
| K% | 15.2% | 13.0% to 21.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.273 to 0.340 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
102 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.216 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |
vs RHP
380 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |