Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Hernaiz, Darell
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
8
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.327 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.263 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.289
0.302
0.315
0.327
wOBA
0.272
0.295
0.321
0.347
0.371
ISO
0.062
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.137
K%
12.7%
14.3%
16.2%
18.0%
19.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.7%
3
Exit velocity83.9
10
Hard-hit%25.7%
8
-17 vs proj
xBA0.268
9
xSLG0.338
3
xwOBA0.263
13
-38 vs proj
BB%9.0%
55
+17 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
16
K%17.9%
76
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
69
Arm Strength86.8 · SS
51
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
43
Range Runs1.6 · SS
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.7 · SS
58
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.4% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions66.2% · rebadged research
51
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
49
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
96 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 316 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.295 to 0.351 | +/- 0.028 |
| ISO | 0.111 | 0.077 to 0.198 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.2% | 29.9% to 41.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 13.1% | 12.8% to 23.2% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.2% to 11.1% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.270 to 0.331 | +/- 0.030 |
vs LHP
112 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.180 |
| K% | 8.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
247 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.173 |
| K% | 8.7% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |