Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Hernaiz, Darell
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.327 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.273 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.293
0.307
0.320
0.332
wOBA
0.295
0.320
0.348
0.375
0.400
ISO
0.064
0.082
0.103
0.123
0.141
K%
11.9%
13.6%
15.5%
17.4%
19.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
62
+24 vs proj
Barrel%0.7%
4
-17 vs proj
Bat speed66.4
16
Exit velocity83.9
8
Hard-hit%26.3%
7
-16 vs proj
K%16.3%
82
xBA0.269
12
xSLG0.339
4
xwOBA0.273
19
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.4 · SS
37
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
45
Range Runs1.5 · SS
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · SS
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
19
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
91
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
51
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
95 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.041 |
| Sample | 135 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 316 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.295 to 0.351 | +/- 0.028 |
| ISO | 0.111 | 0.077 to 0.198 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.2% | 29.9% to 41.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 13.1% | 12.8% to 23.2% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.2% to 11.1% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.270 to 0.331 | +/- 0.030 |
vs LHP
112 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.180 |
| K% | 8.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
247 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.173 |
| K% | 8.7% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |