Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.303 vs 0.273 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Neto, Zach
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.332 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.327 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.315
0.327
0.339
0.351
wOBA
0.324
0.341
0.360
0.379
0.397
ISO
0.162
0.176
0.190
0.205
0.218
K%
24.7%
25.9%
27.4%
28.8%
30.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.0%
80
+53 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
65
Bat speed68.2
30
Exit velocity89.1
56
Hard-hit%37.7%
41
-25 vs proj
K%30.6%
11
-23 vs proj
xBA0.327
55
xSLG0.622
79
xwOBA0.323
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · SS
98
Arm Strength94.4 · SS
94
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · SS
3
Range Runs-5.1 · SS
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · SS
3
SB Success Rate58.3% · SS
12
Sprint Speed27.5 · SS
56
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
151 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 291 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 541 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.331 | 0.316 to 0.374 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.178 | 0.153 to 0.255 | +/- 0.051 |
| Barrel% | 7.0% | 4.9% to 9.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.7% | 38.2% to 51.8% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 24.8% | 19.5% to 28.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 5.0% to 9.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.255 to 0.340 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
301 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |
vs RHP
1224 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 20.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |