Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Ortiz, Joey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.278
0.293
0.307
0.320
wOBA
0.269
0.291
0.316
0.341
0.363
ISO
0.061
0.078
0.096
0.114
0.130
K%
14.7%
16.2%
17.8%
19.5%
21.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.6%
84
+49 vs proj
Barrel%1.9%
13
Bat speed69.5
48
Exit velocity83.9
9
Hard-hit%31.2%
18
K%17.6%
77
xBA0.270
12
xSLG0.348
6
xwOBA0.287
29
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.3 · SS
58
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
98
Range Runs4.6 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · SS
13
SB Success Rate50.0% · SS
5
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
83
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.1% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
37
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
37
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
106 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| Sample | 159 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 531 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.274 to 0.342 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.092 to 0.208 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 1.7% to 6.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.6% | 32.3% to 45.4% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 16.0% | 14.1% to 23.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.3% to 10.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.233 to 0.328 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
344 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 14.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
794 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |