Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026

Horwitz, Spencer

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.320 xwOBA
Range
0.299 to 0.352
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced regular Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.322
xwOBA current pace0.336
xwOBA rolling p500.329
Observed weight51%
xwOBA
0.305 0.316 0.329 0.342 0.353
wOBA
0.362 0.382 0.404 0.426 0.446
ISO
0.133 0.149 0.167 0.184 0.200
K%
12.0% 13.5% 15.1% 16.7% 18.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.7%
91 +28 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
46
Bat speed67.1
21
Exit velocity86.2
24
Hard-hit%32.3%
21
K%11.5%
95 +20 vs proj
xBA0.275
13
xSLG0.443
28
xwOBA0.336
73
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs0.7 · 1B
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 1B
8
Sprint Speed24.7 · 1B
3
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions65.6% · rebadged research
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
28
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
37
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Horwitz, Spencer · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3142026-05-19: 0.3112026-05-21: 0.3152026-05-23: 0.3212026-05-24: 0.3212026-05-25: 0.3242026-05-26: 0.3262026-05-28: 0.3262026-05-29: 0.3332026-05-30: 0.3322026-05-31: 0.3362026-06-01: 0.336 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

155 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Horwitz, Spencer · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 325 CF 399 RF 320 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 47.02026-03-15 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.8 / LA -43.02026-03-17 · field out · ST · popup · EV 93.0 / LA 75.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.4 / LA -36.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.3 / LA 87.02026-03-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -9.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 60.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 37.02026-03-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 11.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 51.02026-03-21 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 32.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -19.02026-03-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -6.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 43.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 0.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 41.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 78.5 / LA 74.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 22.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.4 / LA 64.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 48.02026-03-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 5.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 55.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 67.9 / LA 23.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA 0.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -25.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 50.6 / LA 32.02026-04-04 · sac fly · KC · line_drive · EV 94.3 / LA 20.02026-04-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 26.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 39.4 / LA -76.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.0 / LA 61.02026-04-06 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -7.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -9.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 34.02026-04-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -5.02026-04-08 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 3.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -42.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · popup · EV 73.8 / LA 59.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -4.02026-04-11 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 21.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 32.02026-04-13 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 37.02026-04-13 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 6.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.6 / LA 77.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 53.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 47.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 21.02026-04-16 · fielders choice out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -20.02026-04-17 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 81.6 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 3.02026-04-17 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 11.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.9 / LA -2.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 36.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 2.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.0 / LA -26.02026-04-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -7.02026-04-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 2.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 24.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 43.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 54.02026-04-24 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.4 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 32.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -20.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.7 / LA 16.02026-04-25 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 42.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 7.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.1 / LA 35.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -28.02026-04-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 6.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.5 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -24.02026-04-28 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 14.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -21.02026-04-28 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -14.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 3.02026-04-29 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 36.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 44.4 / LA -19.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.3 / LA 66.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -18.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.5 / LA 37.02026-05-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 32.02026-05-01 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -11.02026-05-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 40.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA -28.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · popup · EV 77.8 / LA 74.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 70.2 / LA 24.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.1 / LA 71.02026-05-02 · double · EP · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 38.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -10.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · SV · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -20.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 41.02026-05-06 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 29.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 24.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 18.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 0.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 7.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -8.02026-05-08 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 19.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -28.02026-05-10 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 93.3 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -9.02026-05-10 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · field out · FS · popup · EV 69.1 / LA 65.02026-05-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 37.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.6 / LA -21.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 61.2 / LA 89.02026-05-14 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 26.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.9 / LA 75.02026-05-14 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 51.3 / LA -78.02026-05-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 9.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.2 / LA 16.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -41.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 57.6 / LA 47.02026-05-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 14.02026-05-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 12.02026-05-20 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 22.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 40.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -44.02026-05-21 · field out · FC · popup · EV 90.9 / LA 76.02026-05-21 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -4.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 51.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 1.02026-05-22 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 28.02026-05-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -10.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA -7.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -1.02026-05-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 28.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 57.9 / LA 43.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 67.9 / LA 21.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -3.02026-05-25 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 31.1 / LA -48.02026-05-25 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 17.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -9.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -9.02026-05-26 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 30.02026-05-26 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 30.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 54.1 / LA 0.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.7 / LA 57.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.2 / LA 22.02026-05-27 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 8.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.6 / LA 35.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 60.02026-05-31 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 21.02026-05-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -28.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Horwitz, Spencer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 12%12%Zone contact: 95%95%Contact: 88%88%Hard hit: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.016
wOBA Δ+0.083
Sample226 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances445----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3200.299 to 0.352+/- 0.027
ISO0.1360.115 to 0.234+/- 0.060
Barrel%4.8%3.2% to 7.4%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%35.4%33.9% to 42.4%+/- 4.2%
K%18.0%14.4% to 25.6%+/- 5.6%
BB%9.7%8.3% to 12.5%+/- 2.1%
BABIP0.2940.274 to 0.333+/- 0.030
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

149 career PA

xwOBA0.227
K%16.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel2.9%
vs RHP

719 career PA

xwOBA0.257
K%13.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel4.5%