Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Thomas, Colby
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.267 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.273 |
| Observed weight | 21% |
xwOBA
0.223
0.247
0.273
0.299
0.323
wOBA
0.371
0.410
0.453
0.497
0.536
ISO
0.095
0.128
0.164
0.200
0.233
K%
18.4%
21.5%
25.0%
28.5%
31.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.0%
14
Barrel%13.3%
100
+41 vs proj
Bat speed74.8
97
Exit velocity90.8
83
Hard-hit%45.5%
73
K%21.7%
51
+36 vs proj
xBA0.294
25
xSLG0.557
63
xwOBA0.294
35
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs-0.7 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-0.9 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
69
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.7% · rebadged research
8
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.5% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
28
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
27
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
40 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.158 |
| Sample | 60 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 270 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.200 to 0.320 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.086 to 0.259 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 2.3% to 7.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.9% | 29.9% to 50.7% | +/- 10.4% |
| K% | 29.5% | 19.3% to 35.6% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 2.1% to 8.2% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.310 | 0.230 to 0.388 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
74 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.107 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.097 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |