Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Thomas, Colby
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
54
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.267 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.258 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.264 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.221
0.241
0.264
0.287
0.307
wOBA
0.268
0.294
0.323
0.352
0.378
ISO
0.108
0.135
0.166
0.197
0.224
K%
21.0%
23.6%
26.6%
29.5%
32.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.1%
97
+38 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
79
Hard-hit%41.5%
62
xBA0.273
11
xSLG0.556
66
xwOBA0.258
10
-29 vs proj
BB%3.4%
5
-19 vs proj
Bat speed74.4
96
K%27.7%
23
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · RF
20
Arm Strength90.3 · RF
24
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs-0.7 · RF
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
70
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.7% · rebadged research
8
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.3% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
50 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| Sample | 119 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 270 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.200 to 0.320 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.086 to 0.259 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 2.3% to 7.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.9% | 29.9% to 50.7% | +/- 10.4% |
| K% | 29.5% | 19.3% to 35.4% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 2.1% to 8.2% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.310 | 0.230 to 0.388 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
74 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.107 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.097 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |