Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Thomas, Colby
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team PHI
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
48
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
93
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%39.1%
53
xBA0.270
10
xSLG0.528
58
xwOBA0.248
9
BB%2.9%
4
Bat speed74.0
94
K%28.7%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · RF
16
Arm Strength92.8 · RF
46
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs-0.4 · RF
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · RF
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.0% · rebadged research
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.6% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions65.6% · rebadged research
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated
41
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
52 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 136 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 270 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.203 to 0.325 | +/- 0.061 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.088 to 0.263 | +/- 0.088 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 2.4% to 8.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.9% | 29.9% to 50.7% | +/- 10.4% |
| K% | 29.5% | 19.3% to 35.6% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 2.1% to 8.2% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.229 to 0.386 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
74 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.107 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.097 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |