Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Beavers, Dylan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.308 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.249
0.274
0.302
0.329
0.354
wOBA
0.268
0.294
0.322
0.351
0.376
ISO
0.086
0.110
0.137
0.164
0.188
K%
18.7%
21.1%
23.7%
26.4%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.4%
76
Barrel%3.3%
25
Bat speed69.4
44
Exit velocity86.8
30
Hard-hit%38.8%
45
+25 vs proj
K%23.6%
39
xBA0.324
50
xSLG0.502
47
xwOBA0.308
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength91.2 · RF
36
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs-1.0 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-2.1 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · RF
73
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions69.3% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
48
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
41
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
80 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 123 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 273 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.204 to 0.356 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.074 to 0.228 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 1.6% to 6.6% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.2% | 18.6% to 40.9% | +/- 11.2% |
| K% | 25.9% | 16.2% to 30.8% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 12.1% | 7.7% to 14.3% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.226 to 0.359 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
26 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.122 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
123 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 9.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |