Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Beavers, Dylan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.269
0.295
0.320
0.343
wOBA
0.257
0.279
0.304
0.329
0.352
ISO
0.084
0.106
0.131
0.156
0.178
K%
19.7%
21.9%
24.4%
26.8%
29.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
23
Exit velocity86.9
33
Hard-hit%36.7%
39
+17 vs proj
xBA0.307
32
xSLG0.480
39
xwOBA0.290
33
BB%10.3%
70
-15 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
57
K%25.2%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
45
Arm Strength92.6 · RF
50
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · RF
57
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
SB Success Rate60.0% · RF
11
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
90
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| Sample | 155 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 273 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.204 to 0.356 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.074 to 0.228 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 1.6% to 6.6% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.2% | 18.6% to 40.9% | +/- 11.2% |
| K% | 25.9% | 16.2% to 30.8% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 12.1% | 7.7% to 14.3% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.226 to 0.359 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
26 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.122 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
123 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 9.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |