Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Beavers, Dylan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
49
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
40
Exit velocity87.7
48
Hard-hit%38.6%
51
xBA0.320
53
xSLG0.520
57
xwOBA0.298
44
BB%9.4%
62
Bat speed70.1
58
K%25.6%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
57
Arm Strength92.6 · LF
44
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-6.9 · LF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · LF
44
Bolts3.0 · LF
34
SB Success Rate55.6% · LF
7
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
90
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated
41
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
142 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 308 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 273 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.204 to 0.356 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.074 to 0.228 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 1.6% to 6.6% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.2% | 18.6% to 40.9% | +/- 11.2% |
| K% | 25.9% | 16.2% to 30.8% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 12.1% | 7.7% to 14.3% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.226 to 0.359 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
26 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.122 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
123 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 9.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |