Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SD · 2026

None

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.290 xwOBA
Range
0.119 to 0.322
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Impact slugger Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
43
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
34
Defense1 metrics
46
Speed2 metrics
75
Plate skills8 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
xwOBA preseason0.265
xwOBA current pace0.236
xwOBA rolling p500.259
Observed weight21%
xwOBA
0.177 0.216 0.259 0.302 0.341
wOBA
0.188 0.223 0.263 0.302 0.338
ISO
0.043 0.074 0.109 0.143 0.174
K%
15.1% 20.2% 25.8% 31.5% 36.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
90 +55 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
19
Hard-hit%34.4%
29
xBA0.337
65
xSLG0.514
52
xwOBA0.236
4 -27 vs proj
BB%3.5%
7 -27 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
36
K%38.6%
1 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Arm Runs1.0 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs0.3 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts5.0 · RF
56
Sprint Speed29.3 · RF
94
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-18
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.7% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions64.6% · rebadged research
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

11 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Bowen, Jase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.236 2026-07-08: 0.2122026-07-09: 0.2282026-07-10: 0.2482026-07-11: 0.2482026-07-12: 0.2362026-07-13: 0.2362026-07-14: 0.2362026-07-15: 0.2362026-07-16: 0.2362026-07-17: 0.2362026-07-18: 0.236 2026-07-08 2026-07-18 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

15 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Bowen, Jase · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 334 CF 396 RF 322 2026-03-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 53.02026-03-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 24.02026-03-19 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 81.4 / LA 23.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -17.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA -29.02026-03-21 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 114.6 / LA 21.02026-03-21 · fielders choice out · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 6.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 33.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -31.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 33.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -3.02026-06-24 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 62.1 / LA 43.02026-06-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 8.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -7.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Bowen, Jase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 47%47%Whiff: 34%34%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 66%66%Hard hit: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.054
wOBA Δ-0.027
Sample57 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances201----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2900.119 to 0.322+/- 0.102
ISO0.1370.057 to 0.219+/- 0.081
Barrel%4.1%0.2% to 6.0%+/- 2.9%
Hard-Hit%35.5%11.3% to 40.4%+/- 14.5%
K%26.6%8.5% to 35.2%+/- 13.4%
BB%7.3%1.0% to 10.3%+/- 4.6%
BABIP0.2880.158 to 0.345+/- 0.094
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.5%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

4 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.5%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%