Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Johnston, Troy
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.306 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.292
0.315
0.338
0.359
wOBA
0.363
0.384
0.406
0.428
0.448
ISO
0.107
0.127
0.151
0.174
0.194
K%
17.2%
19.2%
21.4%
23.7%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.3%
33
Barrel%2.3%
17
-28 vs proj
Bat speed68.1
28
Exit velocity88.4
48
Hard-hit%40.5%
52
+18 vs proj
K%21.9%
50
xBA0.364
83
xSLG0.505
48
xwOBA0.324
63
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
33
Arm Strength85.9 · RF
6
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs-0.6 · RF
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
25
Sprint Speed26.4 · RF
25
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.7% · rebadged research
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions60.5% · rebadged research
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.326 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.371 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
14
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.073 |
| Sample | 219 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 261 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.222 to 0.376 | +/- 0.077 |
| ISO | 0.178 | 0.075 to 0.239 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 1.8% to 7.6% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.4% | 24.3% to 44.4% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 24.4% | 13.5% to 28.6% | +/- 7.6% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 3.2% to 9.6% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.210 to 0.381 | +/- 0.085 |
vs LHP
11 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.099 |
| K% | 8.7% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
125 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.112 |
| K% | 7.7% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |