Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Johnston, Troy
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.306 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.305
0.322
0.340
0.355
wOBA
0.340
0.355
0.371
0.387
0.401
ISO
0.110
0.125
0.142
0.158
0.173
K%
15.7%
17.2%
18.8%
20.4%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11
-42 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%39.1%
52
xBA0.351
81
xSLG0.483
43
xwOBA0.331
78
BB%8.4%
50
+17 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
35
K%17.6%
79
+39 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
46
Arm Strength85.9 · RF
4
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
48
Range Runs-1.6 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
31
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
8
Sprint Speed26.1 · RF
19
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6% · rebadged research
56
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Changeup Stuff+91
6
Mithrandir Stuff+86
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
41
Slider Stuff+85
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
198 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| Sample | 415 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 261 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.338 | 0.222 to 0.376 | +/- 0.077 |
| ISO | 0.178 | 0.075 to 0.239 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 1.8% to 7.6% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 24.3% to 44.4% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 24.4% | 13.5% to 28.7% | +/- 7.6% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 3.2% to 9.6% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.210 to 0.381 | +/- 0.085 |
vs LHP
11 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.099 |
| K% | 8.7% |
| BB% | 2.1% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
125 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.112 |
| K% | 7.7% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |