Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Encarnacion-Strand, Christian
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
87
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.350 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.330 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.292
0.310
0.330
0.349
0.367
wOBA
0.298
0.322
0.349
0.375
0.399
ISO
0.154
0.176
0.201
0.225
0.247
K%
19.1%
21.1%
23.2%
25.4%
27.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.0%
99
+43 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
89
Hard-hit%40.4%
59
xBA0.364
90
xSLG0.724
96
xwOBA0.350
91
+31 vs proj
BB%5.5%
17
Bat speed72.2
82
K%25.5%
35
-20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs2.6 · 3B
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.9% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions61.4% · rebadged research
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
63
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
54 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 295 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.247 to 0.352 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.097 to 0.239 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 2.7% to 7.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.9% | 35.5% to 52.6% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 21.6% | 19.1% to 31.2% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 3.2% to 8.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.238 to 0.342 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
148 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.184 |
| K% | 16.3% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
405 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.201 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |