Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Hicks, Liam
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
22
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.310 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.307
0.318
0.330
0.340
wOBA
0.348
0.363
0.381
0.398
0.414
ISO
0.134
0.145
0.158
0.171
0.183
K%
9.6%
10.7%
11.8%
13.0%
14.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20
Exit velocity84.9
17
Hard-hit%30.3%
15
xBA0.280
13
xSLG0.393
11
xwOBA0.310
54
BB%9.5%
61
Bat speed66.5
15
K%8.6%
99
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.0 · C
47
Catcher Throwing0.1 · C
55
Framing Runs-1.6 · C
28
Outs Above Avg2.0 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Range Runs1.2 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-5.0 · C
0
Sprint Speed25.8 · C
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7% · rebadged research
79
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
48
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342 · validated
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
203 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.059 |
| Sample | 359 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 403 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.322 | 0.307 to 0.356 | +/- 0.025 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.110 to 0.211 | +/- 0.050 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 2.0% to 5.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.0% | 25.5% to 39.9% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 15.9% | 12.6% to 22.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 7.3% to 13.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.274 to 0.342 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.191 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
336 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.206 |
| K% | 8.6% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |