Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Ritter, Ryan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.166 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.270 |
| Observed weight | 10% |
xwOBA
0.214
0.241
0.270
0.300
0.326
wOBA
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
ISO
0.084
0.116
0.153
0.189
0.221
K%
19.7%
22.3%
25.2%
28.0%
30.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.2 · 2B · small sample regression applied
64
Regression applied
Range Runs0.8 · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.5% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 14.3% · rebadged research
98
Correct Decisions76.0% · rebadged research
98
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
51
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
53
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
48
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
16 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 306 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.265 | 0.216 to 0.339 | +/- 0.061 |
| ISO | 0.123 | 0.064 to 0.215 | +/- 0.075 |
| Barrel% | 2.5% | 0.2% to 5.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.3% | 24.3% to 43.3% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 24.9% | 19.2% to 31.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 2.3% to 8.4% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.322 | 0.241 to 0.379 | +/- 0.069 |
vs LHP
44 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.128 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
171 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.116 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |