Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Fulford, Braxton
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team COL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
19
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.258 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.215 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.247 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.195
0.219
0.247
0.274
0.299
wOBA
0.261
0.294
0.330
0.367
0.399
ISO
0.068
0.099
0.134
0.168
0.200
K%
23.0%
26.4%
30.2%
34.0%
37.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
53
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity84.1
11
Hard-hit%27.5%
11
-27 vs proj
xBA0.272
10
xSLG0.452
28
xwOBA0.215
2
-27 vs proj
BB%7.9%
41
Bat speed70.1
57
K%36.8%
2
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
Small sample
Catcher Throwing-0.3 · C
Small sample
Framing Runs-0.8 · C
Small sample
Pop Time1.9 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · DH
15
Sprint Speed28.2 · DH
73
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
59
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
70
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
27 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.073 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 76 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 263 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.183 to 0.317 | +/- 0.067 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.047 to 0.220 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 1.0% to 6.1% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 22.6% to 46.1% | +/- 11.8% |
| K% | 29.5% | 18.0% to 36.7% | +/- 9.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 3.3% to 10.0% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.207 to 0.370 | +/- 0.081 |
vs LHP
46 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.095 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.086 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |