Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Freeland, Alex
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.253 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.279 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.267 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.225
0.245
0.267
0.289
0.309
wOBA
0.282
0.300
0.321
0.341
0.359
ISO
0.055
0.077
0.100
0.124
0.146
K%
23.4%
26.1%
29.1%
32.1%
34.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29
Exit velocity87.2
37
Hard-hit%37.8%
46
xBA0.323
53
xSLG0.489
42
xwOBA0.279
23
BB%10.4%
71
+27 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
35
K%29.5%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
36
Arm Strength87.2 · 2B
56
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
85
Range Runs2.3 · 2B
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
55
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
34
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.6% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 241 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 248 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.158 to 0.314 | +/- 0.078 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.036 to 0.218 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 1.0% to 6.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 20.6% to 44.3% | +/- 11.8% |
| K% | 28.9% | 17.3% to 39.6% | +/- 11.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 3.8% to 11.0% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.192 to 0.351 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.070 |
| K% | 11.0% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |
vs RHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.076 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |