Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Freeland, Alex
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.253 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.269 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.218
0.242
0.269
0.296
0.320
wOBA
0.299
0.324
0.350
0.377
0.402
ISO
0.064
0.091
0.121
0.151
0.178
K%
21.1%
24.5%
28.2%
31.9%
35.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.5%
70
+29 vs proj
Barrel%6.3%
67
+26 vs proj
Bat speed68.0
27
Exit velocity87.7
40
Hard-hit%38.6%
45
K%27.3%
25
xBA0.325
52
xSLG0.532
57
xwOBA0.294
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
49
Arm Strength87.2 · 2B
64
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs2.5 · 2B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
36
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.6% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
85
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
86 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.066 |
| Sample | 143 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 248 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.158 to 0.314 | +/- 0.078 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.036 to 0.218 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 1.0% to 6.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 20.6% to 44.3% | +/- 11.8% |
| K% | 28.9% | 17.3% to 39.6% | +/- 11.2% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 3.8% to 11.0% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.192 to 0.351 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.070 |
| K% | 11.0% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |
vs RHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.076 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |