Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.275 vs 0.225 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Keith, Colt
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.295
0.308
0.322
0.335
0.348
wOBA
0.306
0.327
0.350
0.373
0.394
ISO
0.085
0.100
0.117
0.134
0.149
K%
16.9%
18.4%
20.0%
21.7%
23.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
32
Barrel%4.6%
44
Bat speed70.0
54
Exit velocity89.9
70
Hard-hit%42.9%
63
K%19.6%
64
xBA0.344
69
xSLG0.507
49
xwOBA0.311
52
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs-1.0 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · 3B
88
Bolts1.0 · 3B
17
Sprint Speed28.4 · 3B
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
87
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
89
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
63
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
135 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 194 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 515 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.335 | 0.317 to 0.382 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.115 to 0.229 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.3% to 7.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.1% | 35.0% to 47.0% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 19.2% | 16.7% to 26.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.2% to 12.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.265 to 0.332 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
147 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
979 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |