Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Soderstrom, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.335 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.322
0.335
0.349
0.361
wOBA
0.318
0.336
0.357
0.377
0.396
ISO
0.162
0.178
0.196
0.213
0.229
K%
17.3%
18.7%
20.2%
21.8%
23.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.2%
75
+24 vs proj
Barrel%8.0%
83
Bat speed72.2
81
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%44.4%
69
-15 vs proj
K%18.5%
71
+22 vs proj
xBA0.314
39
xSLG0.539
59
xwOBA0.331
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · LF
95
Arm Strength96.0 · LF
79
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
8
Range Runs-2.2 · LF
17
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · LF
66
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.7% · rebadged research
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.333 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.312 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| Sample | 249 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 544 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.312 to 0.381 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.172 | 0.131 to 0.250 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.0% to 9.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.9% | 44.0% to 54.0% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 21.9% | 16.9% to 27.3% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.1% to 12.5% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.239 to 0.336 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
197 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
828 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |