Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Karros, Kyle
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.277
0.296
0.314
0.330
wOBA
0.295
0.315
0.337
0.359
0.379
ISO
0.073
0.090
0.110
0.129
0.147
K%
17.7%
19.9%
22.3%
24.7%
26.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
84
+49 vs proj
Barrel%3.8%
32
Bat speed67.9
26
Exit velocity89.6
64
Hard-hit%42.0%
59
+31 vs proj
K%23.6%
39
xBA0.348
74
xSLG0.519
52
xwOBA0.327
66
+58 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.6 · 3B
52
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
81
Range Runs1.4 · 3B
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · 3B
89
Sprint Speed26.8 · 3B
36
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.386 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.326 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
128 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.076 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.086 |
| Sample | 208 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 283 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.251 | 0.211 to 0.321 | +/- 0.055 |
| ISO | 0.122 | 0.034 to 0.169 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 0.2% to 4.7% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.9% | 26.0% to 43.2% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 23.2% | 16.1% to 32.6% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 3.7% to 9.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.298 | 0.206 to 0.362 | +/- 0.078 |
vs LHP
37 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.109 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
129 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.106 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |