Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Karros, Kyle
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
53
Exit velocity89.4
68
Hard-hit%41.9%
67
xBA0.334
69
xSLG0.527
58
xwOBA0.338
83
BB%11.6%
84
Bat speed68.0
30
K%20.0%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.6 · 3B
38
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs-0.1 · 3B
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · 3B
67
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 424 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 283 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.251 | 0.211 to 0.321 | +/- 0.055 |
| ISO | 0.122 | 0.034 to 0.169 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 0.2% to 4.7% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.9% | 26.0% to 43.2% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 23.2% | 16.1% to 32.6% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 3.7% to 9.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.298 | 0.206 to 0.362 | +/- 0.078 |
vs LHP
37 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.109 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
129 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.106 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |