Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Mayo, Coby

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.290 xwOBA
Range
0.260 to 0.358
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
85
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
72
Defense3 metrics
52
Speed2 metrics
67
Plate skills10 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
84
Exit velocity91.8
92
Hard-hit%49.1%
92
xBA0.350
81
xSLG0.688
94
xwOBA0.319
68
BB%7.6%
39
Bat speed73.9
93
K%32.1%
9
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength90.4 · 3B
76
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
47
Range Runs-1.9 · 3B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 3B
72
Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B
63
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research
52
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
34
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mayo, Coby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.319 2026-08-21: 0.3092026-08-22: 0.3092026-08-23: 0.3092026-08-24: 0.3092026-08-25: 0.3112026-08-26: 0.3102026-08-27: 0.3132026-08-28: 0.3162026-08-29: 0.3162026-08-30: 0.3182026-08-31: 0.3182026-09-01: 0.319 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Coby Mayo's tools (98) outpace production (78) by 20 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-17.5° Current 38° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Mayo, Coby · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 25% of plotted batted ballsPull 25%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 8% of plotted batted ballsOppo 8% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 53.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -5.02026-03-19 · force out · SI · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 56.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -40.02026-03-19 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 110.3 / LA 26.02026-03-20 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -10.02026-03-22 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -6.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 48.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -21.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 11.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 12.02026-03-29 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 43.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -17.02026-03-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -1.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 41.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 38.9 / LA -54.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 46.02026-04-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 71.1 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 3.02026-04-06 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.9 / LA 41.02026-04-06 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -16.02026-04-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 36.1 / LA -39.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 31.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · popup · EV 78.3 / LA 70.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 50.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 61.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · popup · EV 69.6 / LA 61.02026-04-11 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 1.02026-04-11 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 9.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.7 / LA 77.02026-04-12 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 67.4 / LA 28.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · popup · EV 67.2 / LA 63.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA -21.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 1.02026-04-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 111.1 / LA 12.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 37.02026-04-16 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA 15.02026-04-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 6.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA -1.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -13.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -2.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -9.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 43.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 67.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -28.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -13.02026-04-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 33.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 0.02026-04-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 31.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 4.02026-04-25 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 112.8 / LA 9.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 20.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.7 / LA 62.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 24.02026-04-30 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 95.6 / LA 19.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 28.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 56.02026-04-30 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 38.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 45.02026-05-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA -48.02026-05-03 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -21.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA -9.02026-05-05 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 57.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -6.02026-05-06 · double play · FF · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 8.02026-05-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -4.02026-05-07 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 10.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 52.02026-05-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 46.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 45.02026-05-11 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 32.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -16.02026-05-13 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 4.02026-05-13 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 12.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 76.7 / LA 28.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · popup · EV 71.4 / LA 76.02026-05-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 116.5 / LA 12.02026-05-16 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 12.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 42.02026-05-17 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 7.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 28.02026-05-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 4.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 11.02026-05-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA -4.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 47.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · popup · EV 92.6 / LA 56.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.8 / LA 48.02026-05-22 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.9 / LA 6.02026-05-27 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 5.02026-05-27 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 15.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 41.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 29.02026-06-04 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 42.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA -15.02026-06-05 · fielders choice out · CH · ground_ball · EV 52.9 / LA -23.02026-06-05 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 35.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 70.0 / LA 59.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA -20.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.4 / LA 67.02026-06-20 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 54.3 / LA -38.02026-06-22 · double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -3.02026-06-22 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 113.0 / LA 21.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -2.02026-06-24 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 16.02026-06-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 113.0 / LA 8.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 51.02026-06-26 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 16.02026-06-26 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 52.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 50.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -7.02026-07-27 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -10.02026-07-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 12.02026-07-27 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 29.02026-07-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 27.02026-07-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 19.02026-08-04 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 30.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 57.02026-08-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 9.02026-08-05 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 31.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 34.02026-08-07 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 12.02026-08-07 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 15.02026-08-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -32.02026-08-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 38.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 53.02026-08-14 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 15.02026-08-14 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 4.02026-08-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 88.8 / LA 26.02026-08-15 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 59.0 / LA 3.02026-08-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 75.2 / LA 25.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 32.02026-08-16 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA -35.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 98.5 / LA 63.02026-08-17 · field out · FC · popup · EV 72.2 / LA 50.02026-08-17 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 111.1 / LA 9.02026-08-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 114.2 / LA 28.02026-08-19 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 67.02026-08-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 38.6 / LA -54.02026-08-22 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 17.02026-08-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 112.6 / LA 14.02026-08-23 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 39.02026-08-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 17.02026-08-27 · field out · SL · popup · EV 98.5 / LA 62.02026-08-27 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 111.2 / LA 23.02026-08-27 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -18.02026-08-27 · field out · SI · popup · EV 52.9 / LA 62.02026-08-29 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 70.4 / LA 32.02026-08-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 31.02026-08-30 · field out · SL · popup · EV 92.6 / LA 69.02026-08-30 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 24.02026-08-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 35.02026-08-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.0 / LA -59.02026-08-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 4.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mayo, Coby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 32%32%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--
Sample380 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances358----
Home Runs11----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2900.260 to 0.358+/- 0.049
ISO0.1570.099 to 0.230+/- 0.065
Barrel%4.6%2.5% to 7.3%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%37.8%28.7% to 45.3%+/- 8.3%
K%28.3%22.1% to 33.5%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.0%5.9% to 11.4%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2980.223 to 0.343+/- 0.060
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

118 career PA

xwOBA0.177
K%16.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHP

250 career PA

xwOBA0.166
K%18.0%
BB%5.1%
Barrel3.0%