Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Mayo, Coby
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.277
0.295
0.313
0.329
wOBA
0.261
0.283
0.307
0.330
0.352
ISO
0.121
0.140
0.161
0.182
0.201
K%
25.0%
26.8%
28.7%
30.7%
32.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
58
+18 vs proj
Barrel%5.8%
61
+17 vs proj
Bat speed73.5
92
Exit velocity92.1
91
Hard-hit%48.5%
86
+45 vs proj
K%29.2%
16
xBA0.343
67
xSLG0.586
71
xwOBA0.309
51
+20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs-3.8 · 3B
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 3B
48
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
69
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
73
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
96 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| Sample | 171 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 358 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.260 to 0.358 | +/- 0.049 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.099 to 0.230 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.5% to 7.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 28.7% to 45.3% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 28.3% | 22.1% to 33.5% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.9% to 11.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.298 | 0.223 to 0.343 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
118 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.177 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
250 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.166 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |