Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team SF
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
32
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.258 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.268 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.202
0.233
0.268
0.303
0.335
wOBA
0.278
0.303
0.331
0.359
0.385
ISO
0.051
0.080
0.113
0.146
0.175
K%
13.8%
17.5%
21.6%
25.7%
29.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
32
Exit velocity85.6
22
Hard-hit%31.1%
18
xBA0.336
64
xSLG0.449
27
xwOBA0.286
27
BB%4.7%
12
-19 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%22.7%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
43
Catcher Throwing1.4 · C
81
Framing Runs3.9 · C
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
65
Pop Time1.9 · C
74
Range Runs-0.0 · C
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
40
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.6% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
48
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
57 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.048 |
| Sample | 128 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.284 | 0.120 to 0.321 | +/- 0.101 |
| ISO | 0.148 | 0.027 to 0.219 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 0.2% to 5.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.8% | 11.0% to 41.0% | +/- 15.0% |
| K% | 25.1% | 8.3% to 32.4% | +/- 12.1% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 1.1% to 10.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.146 to 0.361 | +/- 0.107 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.7% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
7 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |