Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Muncy, Max
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.250
0.269
0.289
0.310
0.328
wOBA
0.336
0.362
0.392
0.422
0.449
ISO
0.133
0.155
0.178
0.202
0.224
K%
25.3%
27.5%
30.0%
32.5%
34.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.7%
18
Barrel%7.4%
78
+27 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
Exit velocity92.5
92
Hard-hit%56.7%
98
+61 vs proj
K%34.4%
3
-18 vs proj
xBA0.374
88
xSLG0.654
86
xwOBA0.303
42
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
15
Range Runs-1.4 · 3B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 3B
34
Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B
67
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.102 |
| Sample | 122 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 319 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.220 to 0.326 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.089 to 0.221 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 1.9% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.0% | 23.6% to 44.3% | +/- 10.4% |
| K% | 28.0% | 20.8% to 34.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 3.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.221 to 0.361 | +/- 0.070 |
vs LHP
54 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.139 |
| K% | 14.3% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
197 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.132 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |