Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026

Lawlar, Jordan

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.251 xwOBA
Range
0.146 to 0.314
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced regular Age 24 Status IL-10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
49
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
49
Defense1 metrics
80
Speed2 metrics
65
Plate skills10 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
xwOBA preseason0.246
xwOBA current pace0.348
xwOBA rolling p500.268
Observed weight22%
xwOBA
0.200 0.232 0.268 0.303 0.336
wOBA
0.513 0.551 0.593 0.636 0.674
ISO
0.034 0.064 0.098 0.131 0.161
K%
16.4% 20.6% 25.4% 30.1% 34.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
24
Exit velocity85.0
17
Hard-hit%31.6%
19
xBA0.376
91
xSLG0.533
58
xwOBA0.348
84 +76 vs proj
BB%11.5%
81 +50 vs proj
Bat speed66.0
11
K%21.3%
58 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
Small sample
Range Runs0.8 · CF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · CF
42
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
88
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-18
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.6% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.0% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions73.1% · rebadged research
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
52
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline115
97
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Lawlar, Jordan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.348 2026-07-07: 0.3482026-07-08: 0.3482026-07-09: 0.3482026-07-10: 0.3482026-07-11: 0.3482026-07-12: 0.3482026-07-13: 0.3482026-07-14: 0.3482026-07-15: 0.3482026-07-16: 0.3482026-07-17: 0.3482026-07-18: 0.348 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

23 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Lawlar, Jordan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 35% of plotted batted ballsPull 35%Center field third: 61% of plotted batted ballsCenter 61%Right field third: 4% of plotted batted ballsOppo 4% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -2.02026-03-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 3.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 64.1 / LA 54.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 7.02026-03-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 6.02026-03-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 9.02026-03-21 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -9.02026-03-21 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.1 / LA -50.02026-03-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 71.8 / LA 18.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 33.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 4.02026-03-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 21.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 35.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 44.02026-03-30 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 51.02026-03-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 1.02026-03-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 43.8 / LA 4.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 58.02026-04-01 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 26.02026-04-02 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 28.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -45.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Lawlar, Jordan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.097
wOBA Δ+0.342
Sample61 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances242----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2510.146 to 0.314+/- 0.084
ISO0.1150.057 to 0.216+/- 0.080
Barrel%3.2%0.5% to 5.7%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%32.8%18.0% to 41.5%+/- 11.8%
K%25.7%16.6% to 39.3%+/- 11.3%
BB%7.0%2.8% to 9.6%+/- 3.4%
BABIP0.2850.205 to 0.352+/- 0.074
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

55 career PA

xwOBA0.080
K%9.5%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.9%
vs RHP

71 career PA

xwOBA0.075
K%10.6%
BB%2.3%
Barrel0.8%