Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Lawlar, Jordan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.246 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.360 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.262 |
| Observed weight | 14% |
xwOBA
0.189
0.224
0.262
0.301
0.335
wOBA
0.754
0.791
0.832
0.874
0.911
ISO
0.033
0.065
0.102
0.138
0.171
K%
16.4%
21.0%
26.2%
31.3%
36.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.4 · LF · small sample regression applied
72
Regression applied
Range Runs0.5 · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.1% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.3% · rebadged research
95
Correct Decisions73.6% · rebadged research
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
22 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 242 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.251 | 0.146 to 0.314 | +/- 0.084 |
| ISO | 0.115 | 0.057 to 0.216 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% | 3.2% | 0.5% to 5.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.3% | 18.0% to 41.5% | +/- 11.8% |
| K% | 25.7% | 16.6% to 39.3% | +/- 11.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 2.8% to 9.6% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.205 to 0.352 | +/- 0.074 |
vs LHP
55 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 9.5% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |
vs RHP
71 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.075 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |