Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Dingler, Dillon
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.342 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.385 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.364 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.335
0.349
0.364
0.380
0.394
wOBA
0.361
0.380
0.402
0.423
0.443
ISO
0.189
0.203
0.220
0.236
0.251
K%
18.9%
20.1%
21.4%
22.7%
23.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
43
+29 vs proj
Barrel%8.5%
85
+31 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
54
Exit velocity89.1
55
Hard-hit%47.2%
81
K%19.9%
62
xBA0.377
89
xSLG0.697
91
xwOBA0.385
94
+26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.6 · C
97
Catcher Throwing0.5 · C
53
Framing Runs4.2 · C
97
Pop Time1.9 · C
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · C
33
Sprint Speed27.6 · C
58
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.357 · borderline
0
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.312 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
155 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.073 |
| Sample | 236 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 471 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.329 | 0.307 to 0.391 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.150 | 0.115 to 0.216 | +/- 0.051 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 7.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.6% | 39.7% to 51.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 22.1% | 20.2% to 27.9% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% | 4.9% to 8.6% | +/- 1.8% |
| BABIP | 0.310 | 0.275 to 0.351 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
161 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 17.4% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
466 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |