Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Chourio, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.306
0.324
0.343
0.359
wOBA
0.327
0.354
0.385
0.416
0.444
ISO
0.130
0.151
0.174
0.197
0.218
K%
19.0%
20.7%
22.6%
24.6%
26.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.1%
21
Barrel%11.4%
97
+26 vs proj
Bat speed72.4
83
Exit velocity93.3
96
Hard-hit%48.6%
87
+15 vs proj
K%28.1%
21
-53 vs proj
xBA0.313
38
xSLG0.665
88
xwOBA0.313
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength94.1 · LF
68
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
90
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Limited
Range Runs0.8 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts8.0 · LF
71
Sprint Speed28.6 · LF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.2% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions63.0% · rebadged research
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
82
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
54
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| Sample | 114 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 583 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.311 to 0.400 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.134 to 0.259 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.8% to 9.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.2% | 40.7% to 52.3% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 18.0% | 14.7% to 24.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.0% to 10.1% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.282 to 0.363 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
354 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |
vs RHP
915 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |