Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Ballesteros, Moisés
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
64
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.310 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.294 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.278
0.294
0.310
0.324
wOBA
0.327
0.348
0.372
0.395
0.416
ISO
0.146
0.163
0.183
0.203
0.220
K%
15.4%
17.5%
19.8%
22.2%
24.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
84
+39 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
79
Hard-hit%47.4%
84
+48 vs proj
xBA0.310
37
xSLG0.501
46
xwOBA0.310
53
BB%10.4%
71
Bat speed70.8
69
K%20.2%
64
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
Small sample
Catcher Throwing0.1 · C
Small sample
Framing Runs-0.5 · C
Small sample
Pop Time1.9 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · DH
3
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.4% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.379 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 193 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 236 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.222 to 0.307 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.172 | 0.105 to 0.229 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 1.3% to 5.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.2% | 22.7% to 40.8% | +/- 9.1% |
| K% | 20.5% | 10.2% to 25.7% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 4.0% to 11.6% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.245 to 0.330 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
7 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.072 |
| K% | 4.8% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |
vs RHP
69 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.079 |
| K% | 4.1% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |