Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Basallo, Samuel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.295 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.358 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.303
0.325
0.346
0.365
wOBA
0.380
0.402
0.426
0.450
0.471
ISO
0.174
0.196
0.220
0.244
0.265
K%
20.3%
22.6%
25.1%
27.5%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
57
+22 vs proj
Barrel%8.8%
87
+20 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
90
Exit velocity92.9
95
Hard-hit%50.4%
91
+38 vs proj
K%25.4%
33
xBA0.387
93
xSLG0.696
91
xwOBA0.358
83
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.6 · C
22
Catcher Throwing0.6 · C
62
Framing Runs-2.2 · C
17
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
80
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Range Runs-0.2 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
9
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.8% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions61.5% · rebadged research
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.376 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
120 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.100 |
| Sample | 193 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 264 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.325 | 0.220 to 0.351 | +/- 0.065 |
| ISO | 0.195 | 0.091 to 0.248 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.7% | 29.0% to 47.0% | +/- 9.0% |
| K% | 25.1% | 15.8% to 32.1% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 2.3% to 9.5% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.225 to 0.339 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
26 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.098 |
| K% | 9.2% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
103 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.105 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 2.0% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |