Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Carrigg, Cole
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.268 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.269
0.295
0.320
0.343
wOBA
0.317
0.333
0.351
0.369
0.386
ISO
0.112
0.132
0.154
0.176
0.195
K%
16.3%
19.1%
22.3%
25.4%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
40
Exit velocity86.5
34
Hard-hit%35.1%
34
xBA0.338
73
xSLG0.523
58
xwOBA0.313
62
+26 vs proj
BB%9.3%
61
+24 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
62
K%23.1%
48
+17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · CF
82
Arm Strength101.2 · CF
96
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
88
Range Runs0.4 · CF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
77
Bolts7.0 · CF
56
SB Success Rate77.8% · CF
41
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
53
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
90 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 312 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.102 to 0.317 | +/- 0.108 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.025 to 0.210 | +/- 0.092 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 9.7% to 38.9% | +/- 14.6% |
| K% | 26.5% | 8.1% to 35.7% | +/- 13.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 0.5% to 9.3% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.154 to 0.350 | +/- 0.098 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
5 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.3% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |