Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Dunn, Blake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.278 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.270 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
xwOBA
0.216
0.244
0.276
0.307
0.336
wOBA
0.296
0.330
0.368
0.406
0.441
ISO
0.067
0.100
0.136
0.172
0.204
K%
18.0%
21.0%
24.3%
27.6%
30.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.8%
27
Barrel%2.7%
22
-23 vs proj
Bat speed65.1
7
Exit velocity84.1
10
Hard-hit%31.9%
19
-19 vs proj
K%24.7%
35
xBA0.301
31
xSLG0.426
23
xwOBA0.270
16
-37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs1.0 · RF
Limited
Range Runs1.2 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts14.0 · RF
81
Sprint Speed30.0 · RF
99
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.3% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
36
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.392 · validated
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
43 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 73 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 250 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.176 to 0.329 | +/- 0.077 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.054 to 0.234 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 0.6% to 6.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 18.6% to 42.9% | +/- 12.1% |
| K% | 24.3% | 17.2% to 33.3% | +/- 8.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 3.5% to 11.4% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.203 to 0.354 | +/- 0.076 |
vs LHP
57 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.100 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 1.1% |
vs RHP
69 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.096 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |