Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Tawa, Tim
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.291
0.308
0.325
0.340
wOBA
0.327
0.345
0.364
0.383
0.400
ISO
0.129
0.145
0.163
0.181
0.197
K%
20.5%
22.1%
23.8%
25.6%
27.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
77
+18 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
62
Hard-hit%46.6%
85
+21 vs proj
xBA0.336
71
xSLG0.566
70
xwOBA0.316
64
BB%8.1%
47
Bat speed69.7
50
K%23.2%
47
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · 1B
5
Arm Strength88.9 · 1B
63
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs1.5 · 1B
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
94
Sprint Speed27.5 · 1B
51
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
86
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
30
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.056 |
| Sample | 284 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 313 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.218 to 0.333 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.073 to 0.213 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 2.1% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 30.1% to 49.9% | +/- 9.9% |
| K% | 26.2% | 19.3% to 31.8% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 3.9% to 10.9% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.218 to 0.327 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
92 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.139 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.138 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |