Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026

Schanuel, Nolan

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.342 xwOBA
Range
0.309 to 0.394
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 24 Status IL-10
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.335
xwOBA current pace0.311
xwOBA rolling p500.323
Observed weight51%
xwOBA
0.294 0.308 0.323 0.338 0.352
wOBA
0.300 0.319 0.340 0.362 0.381
ISO
0.111 0.125 0.140 0.155 0.169
K%
12.9% 14.1% 15.4% 16.7% 17.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
49 -22 vs proj
Barrel%2.2%
16
Bat speed65.9
12
Exit velocity86.8
30
Hard-hit%31.7%
19
K%16.0%
83
xBA0.327
55
xSLG0.461
33
xwOBA0.311
52 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.6 · 1B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · 1B
42
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
18
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
87
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Schanuel, Nolan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3022026-05-19: 0.3062026-05-21: 0.3052026-05-23: 0.3122026-05-24: 0.3142026-05-25: 0.3142026-05-26: 0.3142026-05-28: 0.3142026-05-29: 0.3112026-05-30: 0.3112026-05-31: 0.3112026-06-01: 0.311 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nolan Schanuel's tools (93) outpace production (78) by 15 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-17.8° Current 38° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

167 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Schanuel, Nolan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 347 CF 396 RF 350 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 50.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 17.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -11.02026-03-17 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -1.02026-03-23 · force out · FO · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -14.02026-03-23 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 35.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA 14.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 42.02026-03-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 26.02026-03-27 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA 11.02026-03-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 12.02026-03-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 17.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 67.9 / LA 52.02026-03-28 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 0.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 40.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 7.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -31.02026-03-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 8.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 84.0 / LA 24.02026-03-30 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 16.02026-03-30 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 2.02026-03-30 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -19.02026-03-31 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 38.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -10.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 19.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -14.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -55.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -46.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 59.7 / LA -11.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 16.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 36.02026-04-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -10.02026-04-05 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 33.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -3.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 6.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -8.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 65.02026-04-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -27.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 23.02026-04-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 19.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -5.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -15.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 9.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -1.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 69.2 / LA 62.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 8.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 43.02026-04-11 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 73.8 / LA 25.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 65.7 / LA -9.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 10.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -19.02026-04-12 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 13.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 75.2 / LA 28.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -5.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 39.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 6.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA -15.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 0.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -20.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -20.02026-04-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 82.1 / LA 20.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 49.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -48.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.8 / LA 72.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 34.02026-04-17 · single · KN · line_drive · EV 78.0 / LA 23.02026-04-17 · single · KN · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 5.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -4.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -41.02026-04-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -18.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 46.02026-04-19 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -12.02026-04-20 · sac fly · SL · line_drive · EV 90.1 / LA 20.02026-04-20 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -5.02026-04-20 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -7.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -2.02026-04-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 7.02026-04-21 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -22.02026-04-22 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 29.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 23.02026-04-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 23.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.0 / LA 77.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 74.2 / LA 74.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA 10.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -8.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 40.0 / LA -16.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 20.02026-04-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 0.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -8.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 17.02026-04-26 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -1.02026-04-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA -18.02026-04-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 75.9 / LA 25.02026-04-27 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.3 / LA 32.02026-04-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -3.02026-04-28 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 88.2 / LA 21.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.0 / LA -12.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 6.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -40.02026-05-01 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 77.6 / LA 13.02026-05-01 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -1.02026-05-02 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -29.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 40.02026-05-02 · field out · FC · popup · EV 92.0 / LA 72.02026-05-02 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 14.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -2.02026-05-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 15.02026-05-03 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 82.6 / LA 14.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 18.02026-05-04 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 12.02026-05-04 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 23.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 39.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA -3.02026-05-05 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 22.02026-05-05 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 45.7 / LA -47.02026-05-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 8.02026-05-06 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA -24.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 67.4 / LA 18.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · popup · EV 86.2 / LA 76.02026-05-08 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -5.02026-05-08 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -19.02026-05-09 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 32.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 6.02026-05-09 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 13.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA 12.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.1 / LA 18.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 37.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 12.02026-05-11 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 6.02026-05-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 51.4 / LA -72.02026-05-12 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 73.1 / LA 17.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 20.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -18.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -38.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 19.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · popup · EV 87.9 / LA 70.02026-05-17 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 1.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 26.02026-05-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.3 / LA 13.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 37.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -14.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -23.02026-05-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 75.2 / LA 22.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 53.2 / LA 25.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · popup · EV 61.9 / LA 64.02026-05-20 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 3.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -16.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -11.02026-05-21 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 32.02026-05-21 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 24.02026-05-21 · field out · FC · popup · EV 99.2 / LA 65.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 30.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -19.02026-05-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 26.02026-05-22 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 42.02026-05-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 15.02026-05-23 · field out · FC · popup · EV 61.1 / LA 39.02026-05-23 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 0.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Schanuel, Nolan · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 33.1° Length 6.7 ft Ideal path 48% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Schanuel, Nolan · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 6.6° Direction -2.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Schanuel, Nolan · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 67.4 mph Hard swing rate 5% Whiff / swing 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Schanuel, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 17%17%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 83%83%Hard hit: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.031
wOBA Δ-0.001
Sample225 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances559----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3420.309 to 0.394+/- 0.043
ISO0.1430.112 to 0.215+/- 0.051
Barrel%3.6%2.1% to 6.2%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%30.8%27.2% to 38.0%+/- 5.4%
K%13.5%12.0% to 19.9%+/- 3.9%
BB%10.7%8.6% to 14.4%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2830.260 to 0.329+/- 0.035
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

309 career PA

xwOBA0.261
K%13.1%
BB%9.4%
Barrel2.2%
vs RHP

1038 career PA

xwOBA0.285
K%11.7%
BB%10.0%
Barrel3.1%