Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.214 vs 0.178 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Carter, Evan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.280 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.282
0.293
0.305
0.315
wOBA
0.261
0.275
0.290
0.306
0.320
ISO
0.115
0.129
0.145
0.160
0.174
K%
20.7%
22.0%
23.4%
24.8%
26.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
27
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.0
19
Hard-hit%35.9%
38
xBA0.276
12
xSLG0.443
28
xwOBA0.280
25
-40 vs proj
BB%11.5%
83
+23 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
28
K%24.6%
40
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · CF
19
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
27
Outs Above Avg9.0 · CF
98
Range Runs8.3 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.8 · CF
93
Bolts32.0 · CF
87
SB Success Rate92.9% · CF
84
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
87
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
77
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
81
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
181 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.027 |
| Sample | 399 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 336 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.278 to 0.344 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.166 | 0.110 to 0.259 | +/- 0.075 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 31.0% to 47.5% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 21.4% | 18.8% to 30.1% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.0% to 12.4% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.230 to 0.332 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
90 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.178 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
480 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.214 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |