Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.214 vs 0.178 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Carter, Evan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.296
0.310
0.323
0.335
wOBA
0.265
0.284
0.306
0.327
0.346
ISO
0.134
0.153
0.175
0.197
0.216
K%
18.8%
20.4%
22.2%
24.0%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.7%
91
+34 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
46
Bat speed68.5
33
Exit velocity86.1
24
Hard-hit%38.5%
43
K%23.2%
41
xBA0.273
13
xSLG0.472
37
xwOBA0.302
41
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
37
Arm Strength90.7 · CF
32
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs5.4 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · CF
95
Bolts11.0 · CF
74
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
89
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions70.7% · rebadged research
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
75
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
125 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| Sample | 211 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 336 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.278 to 0.344 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.166 | 0.110 to 0.259 | +/- 0.075 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 31.0% to 47.6% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 21.4% | 18.8% to 30.1% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.0% to 12.4% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.230 to 0.332 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
90 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.178 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
480 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.214 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |