Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / COL · 2026

None

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.288 xwOBA
Range
0.064 to 0.334
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
30
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
45
Defense1 metrics
68
Speed1 metrics
43
Plate skills9 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
xwOBA preseason0.253
xwOBA current pace0.300
xwOBA rolling p500.262
Observed weight19%
xwOBA
0.152 0.204 0.262 0.321 0.373
wOBA
0.212 0.250 0.292 0.335 0.373
ISO
0.000 0.036 0.078 0.119 0.157
K%
13.4% 18.9% 25.0% 31.1% 36.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
38
Hard-hit%41.7%
59 +35 vs proj
xBA0.297
25
xSLG0.401
14
xwOBA0.300
41
BB%9.4%
60 +30 vs proj
Bat speed74.1
95
K%18.9%
69 +49 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
68 Regression applied
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · DH
43
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-12
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 12.2% · rebadged research
98
Correct Decisions75.3% · rebadged research
98
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline117
99
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

7 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Thompson, Sterlin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.312 0.300 2026-06-06: 0.3082026-06-07: 0.3082026-06-08: 0.3012026-06-09: 0.3012026-06-10: 0.3012026-06-11: 0.3012026-06-12: 0.300 2026-06-06 2026-06-12 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

29 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Thompson, Sterlin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 83% of plotted batted ballsCenter 83%Right field third: 7% of plotted batted ballsOppo 7% LF 347 CF 415 RF 350 2026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -12.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -4.02026-05-16 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -8.02026-05-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -7.02026-05-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 65.1 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 21.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 36.02026-05-22 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 54.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -39.02026-05-23 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA 7.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -16.02026-05-24 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -2.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 4.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 57.7 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 65.5 / LA 14.02026-05-26 · single · EP · fly_ball · EV 73.2 / LA 44.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA -3.02026-05-27 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -8.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 12.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 21.02026-06-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 11.02026-06-01 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 74.8 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -22.02026-06-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 1.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -27.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 110.2 / LA -11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Thompson, Sterlin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.012
wOBA Δ+0.004
Sample53 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances202----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2880.064 to 0.334+/- 0.135
ISO0.1110.015 to 0.210+/- 0.097
Barrel%3.1%0.2% to 5.2%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%32.7%6.0% to 39.5%+/- 16.8%
K%28.3%9.0% to 37.7%+/- 14.3%
BB%7.0%0.5% to 9.3%+/- 4.4%
BABIP0.2920.117 to 0.371+/- 0.127
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

0 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.1%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

8 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.0%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%