Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Saggese, Thomas
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team STL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.283 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.276
0.292
0.308
0.322
wOBA
0.298
0.325
0.355
0.385
0.412
ISO
0.121
0.139
0.160
0.180
0.198
K%
23.0%
24.9%
27.0%
29.0%
30.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
86
+30 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
73
Hard-hit%41.7%
66
xBA0.330
63
xSLG0.624
85
xwOBA0.309
55
BB%7.8%
41
+19 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%28.7%
21
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
59
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
24
Range Runs0.1 · LF
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · LF
62
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9% · rebadged research
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions64.6% · rebadged research
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
50
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
77
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
| Sample | 115 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 356 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.268 to 0.339 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.156 | 0.082 to 0.189 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 2.0% to 6.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 32.0% to 47.8% | +/- 7.9% |
| K% | 24.3% | 20.0% to 30.6% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 3.6% to 9.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.321 | 0.254 to 0.366 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
88 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.169 |
| K% | 16.1% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
281 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.163 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |