Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
None
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
35
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.262 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.194
0.234
0.278
0.322
0.361
wOBA
0.237
0.264
0.293
0.322
0.348
ISO
0.010
0.041
0.075
0.109
0.140
K%
13.8%
18.4%
23.6%
28.8%
33.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.9%
4
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity84.6
13
Hard-hit%25.0%
7
-27 vs proj
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.479
39
xwOBA0.309
52
+24 vs proj
BB%2.7%
3
-27 vs proj
Bat speed66.1
12
K%22.7%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength91.4 · 2B
82
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 2B
91
Range Runs3.6 · 2B
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.7 · 2B
86
SB Success Rate0.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.4% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
22 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| Sample | 110 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 204 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.075 to 0.320 | +/- 0.122 |
| ISO | 0.115 | 0.001 to 0.194 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 3.4% | 0.2% to 5.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.0% | 8.5% to 39.3% | +/- 15.4% |
| K% | 24.8% | 7.9% to 36.9% | +/- 14.5% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 0.5% to 8.8% | +/- 4.2% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.131 to 0.367 | +/- 0.118 |
vs LHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.9% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |