Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Montgomery, Colson
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CWS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.311
0.325
0.338
0.351
wOBA
0.335
0.353
0.373
0.393
0.411
ISO
0.187
0.204
0.223
0.243
0.260
K%
25.4%
26.9%
28.5%
30.1%
31.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
52
Barrel%7.5%
79
Bat speed74.1
95
Exit velocity90.1
72
Hard-hit%44.7%
70
K%30.3%
12
xBA0.328
56
xSLG0.678
89
xwOBA0.331
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
23
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
81
Range Runs7.3 · SS
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.9 · SS
3
Sprint Speed26.5 · SS
28
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
71
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
87
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.323 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.368 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
143 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.053 |
| Sample | 267 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 342 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.288 to 0.363 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.137 to 0.275 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.2% to 8.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.2% | 34.0% to 50.3% | +/- 8.1% |
| K% | 28.2% | 21.7% to 32.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.9% to 12.1% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.223 to 0.355 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
83 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 14.3% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
205 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.189 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |