Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Osuna, Alejandro
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3
Exit velocity86.4
34
Hard-hit%31.0%
19
xBA0.300
29
xSLG0.368
6
xwOBA0.300
45
BB%8.0%
44
Bat speed69.9
52
K%13.9%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.2 · LF
8
Arm Strength88.4 · LF
15
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · LF
3
Range Runs-6.3 · LF
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed28.4 · LF
79
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
19
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
96 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 237 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 294 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.266 to 0.371 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.061 to 0.187 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 2.1% to 6.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 29.2% to 43.1% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 20.1% | 13.8% to 27.6% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 10.3% | 5.8% to 13.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.244 to 0.338 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
15 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.134 |
| K% | 9.0% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
173 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.154 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |