Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Osuna, Alejandro
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.300
0.321
0.342
0.361
wOBA
0.345
0.373
0.404
0.434
0.462
ISO
0.065
0.085
0.107
0.129
0.149
K%
13.5%
15.7%
18.2%
20.7%
22.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
61
Barrel%0.9%
5
-41 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
Exit velocity87.6
39
Hard-hit%35.8%
31
K%13.0%
92
+31 vs proj
xBA0.319
45
xSLG0.387
13
xwOBA0.333
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
27
Arm Strength87.1 · LF
13
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-1.1 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.5 · LF
83
SB Success Rate33.3% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.5% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
13
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
74 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| Sample | 115 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 294 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.266 to 0.371 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.062 to 0.187 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 2.1% to 6.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 29.2% to 43.1% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 20.1% | 13.8% to 27.6% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 10.3% | 5.8% to 13.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.240 to 0.337 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
15 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.134 |
| K% | 9.0% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
173 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.154 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |