Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Rodríguez, Héctor
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
28
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.268 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.256 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.264 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.197
0.229
0.264
0.298
0.330
wOBA
0.253
0.278
0.305
0.332
0.357
ISO
0.071
0.099
0.129
0.160
0.188
K%
17.6%
21.8%
26.5%
31.2%
35.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
34
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity87.4
45
Hard-hit%34.5%
32
xBA0.279
14
xSLG0.447
30
xwOBA0.256
11
-40 vs proj
BB%5.4%
17
-23 vs proj
Bat speed72.4
83
K%26.4%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
50
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
63
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
49
Range Runs-0.2 · RF
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · RF
71
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.7% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions58.0% · rebadged research
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
86
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline83
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
66 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.048 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| Sample | 129 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.125 to 0.327 | +/- 0.101 |
| ISO | 0.135 | 0.018 to 0.197 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 0.2% to 5.9% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 12.1% to 41.5% | +/- 14.7% |
| K% | 27.0% | 9.3% to 36.9% | +/- 13.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 1.6% to 9.0% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.302 | 0.182 to 0.367 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |