Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Fernandez, Jose
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 23
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
34
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.282 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.224
0.252
0.282
0.313
0.340
wOBA
0.275
0.295
0.317
0.338
0.358
ISO
0.070
0.089
0.111
0.133
0.153
K%
15.4%
18.8%
22.5%
26.3%
29.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
22
-30 vs proj
Exit velocity84.5
15
Hard-hit%38.7%
50
-16 vs proj
xBA0.325
56
xSLG0.459
34
xwOBA0.285
29
BB%5.3%
16
Bat speed70.5
64
K%21.6%
56
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
80
Range Runs2.3 · 3B
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 1B
71
Bolts9.0 · 1B
63
SB Success Rate80.0% · 1B
48
Sprint Speed29.5 · 1B
95
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.8% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions61.5% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
40
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
136 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 208 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 203 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.298 | 0.119 to 0.331 | +/- 0.106 |
| ISO | 0.151 | 0.054 to 0.208 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 0.2% to 5.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.0% | 17.5% to 43.6% | +/- 13.1% |
| K% | 25.6% | 9.4% to 36.3% | +/- 13.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 1.0% to 10.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.179 to 0.354 | +/- 0.087 |
vs LHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.2% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
13 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.2% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |