Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Rice, Ben

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.362 xwOBA
Range
0.333 to 0.413
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Impact slugger Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.373
xwOBA current pace0.409
xwOBA rolling p500.392
Observed weight53%
xwOBA
0.364 0.377 0.392 0.407 0.420
wOBA
0.434 0.453 0.474 0.496 0.515
ISO
0.247 0.264 0.283 0.302 0.319
K%
19.4% 20.7% 22.1% 23.6% 24.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.0%
80
Barrel%10.8%
95
Bat speed70.0
55
Exit velocity92.3
92
Hard-hit%50.6%
92
K%23.2%
41 -20 vs proj
xBA0.399
96
xSLG0.771
97
xwOBA0.409
98
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.7 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
36
Sprint Speed26.8 · 1B
36
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
19
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.322 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.453 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
49
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rice, Ben · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.4252026-05-19: 0.4272026-05-21: 0.4172026-05-23: 0.4072026-05-24: 0.4062026-05-25: 0.4052026-05-26: 0.4022026-05-28: 0.4032026-05-29: 0.4032026-05-30: 0.4032026-05-31: 0.4082026-06-01: 0.409 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ben Rice's tools (69) outpace production (74) by -5 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too Low
+10.8° Current 5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

152 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rice, Ben · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 64% of plotted batted ballsCenter 64%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-17 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 17.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 36.02026-03-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 17.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 5.02026-03-17 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -43.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 51.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 7.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 40.8 / LA -41.02026-03-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 76.0 / LA 23.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 58.02026-03-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.4 / LA 25.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 55.02026-03-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 5.02026-03-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -33.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 3.02026-03-28 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 21.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA -31.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -22.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 24.02026-03-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 8.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 1.02026-03-31 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 9.02026-03-31 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -12.02026-04-01 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -5.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -4.02026-04-01 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 29.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 22.02026-04-03 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 21.02026-04-05 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -4.02026-04-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 27.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 49.02026-04-07 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 69.1 / LA 27.02026-04-09 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -5.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 41.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · popup · EV 89.4 / LA 72.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 31.02026-04-11 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 20.02026-04-12 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 18.02026-04-14 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 54.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -18.02026-04-15 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -8.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -30.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 13.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 32.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -9.02026-04-16 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 26.02026-04-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 44.02026-04-17 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 21.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 9.02026-04-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 26.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 3.02026-04-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 33.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 58.2 / LA 32.02026-04-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 91.8 / LA 15.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA -4.02026-04-24 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 12.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 2.02026-04-24 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 32.02026-04-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 16.02026-04-25 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 33.02026-04-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 29.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 14.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 0.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -22.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -5.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 42.02026-04-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 23.02026-04-27 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA -22.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -17.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -1.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -9.02026-04-29 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 94.3 / LA 12.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 23.02026-04-29 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 5.02026-04-29 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -1.02026-05-01 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 5.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -8.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -12.02026-05-01 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 21.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 69.0 / LA 37.02026-05-02 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 5.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 13.02026-05-03 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 22.02026-05-03 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 56.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.7 / LA 59.02026-05-09 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -14.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 64.7 / LA 17.02026-05-09 · field out · SV · popup · EV 67.8 / LA 60.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 18.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 36.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 6.02026-05-11 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 18.02026-05-11 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 26.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -14.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 33.02026-05-13 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 60.0 / LA -49.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 35.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · popup · EV 90.1 / LA 66.02026-05-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 13.02026-05-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -2.02026-05-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -5.02026-05-16 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 63.3 / LA 6.02026-05-16 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.3 / LA -22.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · popup · EV 92.4 / LA 85.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA -10.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 29.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 4.02026-05-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 26.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.5 / LA -20.02026-05-18 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -10.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.6 / LA 19.02026-05-19 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.0 / LA -56.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 30.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -4.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 8.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 23.02026-05-21 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 71.6 / LA 18.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 52.02026-05-22 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 74.3 / LA 19.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 53.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -2.02026-05-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -11.02026-05-24 · double play · CH · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 19.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 2.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 12.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -29.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 22.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 32.02026-05-26 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 15.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 7.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -15.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 22.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 8.02026-05-27 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 20.02026-05-27 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -3.02026-05-27 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -4.02026-05-31 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 34.02026-05-31 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 22.02026-05-31 · field out · FC · popup · EV 53.7 / LA 52.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Rice, Ben · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 31.3° Length 7.5 ft Ideal path 54% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Rice, Ben · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 11.7° Direction -5.3° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Rice, Ben · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.4 mph Hard swing rate 24% Whiff / swing 24% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rice, Ben · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 23%23%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.297 vs 0.250 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.047
wOBA Δ+0.112
Sample250 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances511----
Home Runs23----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3620.333 to 0.413+/- 0.040
ISO0.1930.152 to 0.278+/- 0.063
Barrel%8.7%6.7% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%48.6%43.5% to 54.8%+/- 5.7%
K%20.0%17.3% to 26.2%+/- 4.4%
BB%10.3%7.6% to 13.5%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2690.214 to 0.298+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

181 career PA

xwOBA0.250
K%18.0%
BB%7.0%
Barrel6.7%
vs RHP

590 career PA

xwOBA0.297
K%14.7%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.4%