Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Quero, Edgar
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CWS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.256 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.284 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.252
0.267
0.284
0.301
0.316
wOBA
0.257
0.279
0.304
0.329
0.352
ISO
0.064
0.083
0.105
0.126
0.145
K%
18.2%
19.7%
21.4%
23.1%
24.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.8%
63
+28 vs proj
Barrel%0.7%
3
-29 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
17
Exit velocity89.4
60
Hard-hit%34.7%
28
-43 vs proj
K%23.5%
40
-40 vs proj
xBA0.279
16
xSLG0.374
9
xwOBA0.256
10
-35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.4 · C
9
Catcher Throwing0.7 · C
69
Framing Runs-3.2 · C
10
Pop Time2.0 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.1 · C
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
93 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.049 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| Sample | 153 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 403 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.264 to 0.353 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.055 to 0.190 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 1.9% to 6.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.9% | 37.4% to 52.4% | +/- 7.5% |
| K% | 17.0% | 14.9% to 23.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 5.3% to 11.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.252 to 0.346 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
139 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.194 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
271 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 11.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |