Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Smith, Cam
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.346 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.336 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.308
0.321
0.336
0.351
0.364
wOBA
0.276
0.294
0.314
0.335
0.353
ISO
0.113
0.129
0.146
0.164
0.179
K%
22.2%
23.6%
25.2%
26.8%
28.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
55
Barrel%9.2%
90
+42 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
97
Exit velocity88.4
49
Hard-hit%43.9%
67
K%25.5%
32
xBA0.359
81
xSLG0.666
88
xwOBA0.346
78
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
60
Arm Strength97.1 · RF
83
Outs Above Avg6.0 · RF
98
Range Runs5.6 · RF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
62
Bolts14.0 · RF
81
SB Success Rate87.5% · RF
74
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
94
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
47
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
66
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
78
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
139 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 239 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 456 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.282 to 0.361 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.149 | 0.096 to 0.221 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.8% to 7.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 34.5% to 47.5% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.9% to 30.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.4% to 11.4% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.275 to 0.360 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
144 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
368 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |