Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Smith, Cam
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
73
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.309
0.321
0.333
0.343
wOBA
0.279
0.291
0.305
0.319
0.331
ISO
0.146
0.158
0.170
0.183
0.194
K%
22.3%
23.3%
24.5%
25.7%
26.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
83
+31 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%44.9%
79
xBA0.334
68
xSLG0.587
76
xwOBA0.319
68
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed75.7
99
K%24.4%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · RF
10
Arm Strength97.1 · RF
77
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
49
Range Runs4.3 · RF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · RF
82
Bolts29.0 · RF
82
SB Success Rate83.3% · RF
59
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
92
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.322 · validated
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
206 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| Sample | 505 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 456 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.282 to 0.361 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.149 | 0.096 to 0.221 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 2.8% to 7.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 34.5% to 47.5% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.9% to 30.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.4% to 11.4% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.312 | 0.275 to 0.360 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
144 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
368 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |