Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Stewart, Sal
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
80
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.288 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.350 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.313
0.323
0.334
0.345
0.355
wOBA
0.361
0.373
0.386
0.399
0.411
ISO
0.184
0.196
0.210
0.225
0.237
K%
19.3%
20.5%
21.9%
23.2%
24.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
92
+25 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%40.1%
57
xBA0.341
74
xSLG0.641
87
xwOBA0.350
90
+18 vs proj
BB%9.7%
65
+26 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
59
K%21.3%
58
+21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.5 · 1B
21
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
46
Range Runs-0.1 · 1B
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
15
SB Success Rate76.9% · 1B
38
Sprint Speed26.7 · 1B
30
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
288 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 628 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 233 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.228 to 0.312 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.077 to 0.245 | +/- 0.084 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 2.6% to 8.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.5% | 25.0% to 48.2% | +/- 11.6% |
| K% | 25.0% | 13.3% to 28.8% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 2.7% to 10.6% | +/- 4.0% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.207 to 0.333 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
8 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.090 |
| K% | 5.2% |
| BB% | 1.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.083 |
| K% | 5.7% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |