Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.312 vs 0.274 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Merrill, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.369 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.342 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.327
0.342
0.356
0.370
wOBA
0.264
0.282
0.302
0.321
0.339
ISO
0.127
0.142
0.159
0.176
0.191
K%
19.6%
20.9%
22.4%
23.9%
25.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
44
+20 vs proj
Barrel%6.1%
63
-23 vs proj
Bat speed71.3
74
Exit velocity88.4
49
Hard-hit%46.6%
79
K%24.3%
37
-30 vs proj
xBA0.336
62
xSLG0.582
70
xwOBA0.317
58
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
86
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs1.0 · CF
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · CF
94
Bolts2.0 · CF
37
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
39
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.054 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.070 |
| Sample | 247 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 519 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.371 | 0.332 to 0.415 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.186 | 0.144 to 0.264 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 8.8% | 6.3% to 11.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.0% | 39.5% to 50.9% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 19.2% | 15.8% to 24.8% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.8% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.301 | 0.266 to 0.350 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
347 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHP
812 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.312 |
| K% | 16.1% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 8.4% |