Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Church, Nathan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45
Exit velocity84.1
12
Hard-hit%29.9%
16
xBA0.297
26
xSLG0.448
30
xwOBA0.284
28
BB%5.8%
20
Bat speed67.0
21
K%17.8%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · CF
35
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
96
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs1.3 · CF
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
73
SB Success Rate72.7% · CF
29
Sprint Speed28.5 · CF
81
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.9% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions61.3% · rebadged research
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.369 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
84
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
189 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 400 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 236 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.182 to 0.301 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.037 to 0.209 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 19.5% to 44.5% | +/- 12.5% |
| K% | 21.3% | 12.9% to 33.9% | +/- 10.5% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 1.8% to 10.8% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.176 to 0.337 | +/- 0.080 |
vs LHP
17 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.053 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 1.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.058 |
| K% | 5.9% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |