Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Church, Nathan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.283 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.262
0.283
0.303
0.322
wOBA
0.289
0.310
0.335
0.359
0.381
ISO
0.070
0.094
0.121
0.147
0.172
K%
13.9%
16.8%
20.0%
23.2%
26.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.7%
12
-24 vs proj
Barrel%6.4%
69
+41 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
16
Exit velocity84.6
12
Hard-hit%32.3%
21
K%19.8%
63
xBA0.319
44
xSLG0.522
53
xwOBA0.297
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · LF
77
Arm Strength97.1 · LF
83
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · LF
72
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
49
Sprint Speed28.5 · LF
83
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 51.6% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions59.6% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
85
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| Sample | 172 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 236 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.182 to 0.301 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.036 to 0.209 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 19.6% to 44.5% | +/- 12.5% |
| K% | 21.3% | 12.9% to 33.9% | +/- 10.5% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 1.8% to 10.8% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.176 to 0.337 | +/- 0.080 |
vs LHP
17 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.054 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 1.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.058 |
| K% | 5.9% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |