Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Crawford, Justin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.284 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.238
0.257
0.280
0.302
0.321
wOBA
0.296
0.309
0.325
0.340
0.354
ISO
0.069
0.083
0.099
0.115
0.129
K%
14.0%
16.3%
18.9%
21.5%
23.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.9%
3
-32 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
22
Hard-hit%36.1%
39
xBA0.317
49
xSLG0.394
11
xwOBA0.284
28
-18 vs proj
BB%6.2%
23
Bat speed66.5
16
K%17.8%
78
+42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
42
Arm Strength86.1 · CF
5
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
49
Range Runs-0.5 · CF
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · CF
64
Bolts69.0 · CF
97
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
33
Sprint Speed29.6 · CF
97
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
48
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
225 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 422 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.114 to 0.333 | +/- 0.109 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.033 to 0.196 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 5.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.0% | 11.8% to 38.4% | +/- 13.3% |
| K% | 25.2% | 6.9% to 34.4% | +/- 13.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 0.6% to 9.6% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.173 to 0.358 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |