Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
None
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.271 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.211
0.240
0.271
0.303
0.332
wOBA
0.281
0.301
0.323
0.345
0.366
ISO
0.073
0.094
0.118
0.141
0.162
K%
13.2%
16.7%
20.6%
24.5%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
30
Barrel%1.0%
6
-30 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
17
Exit velocity86.7
29
Hard-hit%37.1%
38
K%20.1%
61
+27 vs proj
xBA0.295
27
xSLG0.380
11
xwOBA0.271
17
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · CF
88
Arm Strength85.9 · CF
6
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
8
Range Runs-1.9 · CF
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · CF
38
Bolts31.0 · CF
96
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
22
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.6% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
38
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
19
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
141 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.029 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| Sample | 199 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.114 to 0.333 | +/- 0.109 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.033 to 0.196 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 5.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.0% | 11.8% to 38.4% | +/- 13.3% |
| K% | 25.2% | 6.9% to 34.4% | +/- 13.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 0.6% to 9.6% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.173 to 0.358 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |