Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Durbin, Caleb
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.266 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.278
0.290
0.302
0.313
wOBA
0.257
0.277
0.298
0.320
0.339
ISO
0.088
0.105
0.124
0.142
0.159
K%
11.1%
12.3%
13.6%
14.9%
16.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.9%
19
Barrel%1.5%
9
-16 vs proj
Bat speed65.1
7
Exit velocity84.3
11
Hard-hit%29.7%
12
K%15.7%
85
xBA0.269
11
xSLG0.348
5
xwOBA0.266
15
-43 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.8 · 3B
26
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs1.9 · 3B
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 3B
69
SB Success Rate60.0% · 3B
14
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.5% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
91
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
78
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.292 · validated
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
145 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| Sample | 204 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 485 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.300 to 0.351 | +/- 0.026 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.084 to 0.213 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 2.1% to 6.0% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.4% | 25.5% to 37.1% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 10.7% | 10.4% to 18.0% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 4.1% to 9.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.277 to 0.341 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
155 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
430 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 7.7% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |