Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Durbin, Caleb
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.284
0.295
0.305
0.314
wOBA
0.318
0.331
0.344
0.358
0.371
ISO
0.114
0.125
0.137
0.150
0.161
K%
11.4%
12.2%
13.1%
14.0%
14.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11
Exit velocity82.0
5
Hard-hit%25.9%
8
xBA0.280
13
xSLG0.377
8
xwOBA0.287
32
-33 vs proj
BB%7.9%
43
+23 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
14
K%13.7%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.8 · 3B
15
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
84
Range Runs2.6 · 3B
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 3B
58
SB Success Rate77.8% · 3B
41
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
66
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
59
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
254 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| Sample | 532 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 485 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.300 to 0.351 | +/- 0.026 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.084 to 0.213 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 2.1% to 6.0% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.4% | 25.5% to 37.1% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 10.7% | 10.4% to 18.0% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% | 4.1% to 9.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.300 | 0.277 to 0.341 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
155 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
430 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 7.7% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |