Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.257 vs 0.222 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Holliday, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.328 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 15% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.303
0.326
0.350
0.371
wOBA
0.234
0.280
0.331
0.382
0.427
ISO
0.118
0.144
0.172
0.200
0.226
K%
18.2%
20.3%
22.6%
24.9%
26.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs0.3 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate100.0%
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions71.2% · rebadged research
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
28
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
51
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
96
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
15 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 557 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.285 to 0.385 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.160 | 0.098 to 0.221 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 3.6% to 8.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.5% | 38.3% to 49.3% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 21.0% | 17.8% to 27.6% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.245 to 0.342 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
232 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.222 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |
vs RHP
659 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |