Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.257 vs 0.222 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Holliday, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
46
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.328 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.301
0.316
0.331
0.344
wOBA
0.274
0.290
0.308
0.325
0.341
ISO
0.114
0.127
0.143
0.158
0.172
K%
20.0%
21.2%
22.7%
24.1%
25.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
43
-26 vs proj
Exit velocity86.5
35
Hard-hit%34.1%
30
-48 vs proj
xBA0.332
66
xSLG0.502
51
xwOBA0.307
54
BB%10.8%
77
+23 vs proj
Bat speed68.6
35
K%23.1%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
82
Arm Strength82.5 · 2B
13
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
19
Range Runs-2.4 · 2B
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 2B
66
Bolts5.0 · 2B
48
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
33
Sprint Speed28.8 · 2B
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.1% · rebadged research
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
36
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
13
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
103 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| Sample | 316 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 557 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.285 to 0.385 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.160 | 0.098 to 0.221 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 3.6% to 8.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.5% | 38.3% to 49.3% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 21.0% | 17.8% to 27.6% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.245 to 0.342 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
232 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.222 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |
vs RHP
659 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |