Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Montes, Lazaro

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.303 xwOBA
Range
0.093 to 0.329
Live Δ
--
Team SEA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-12
39
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
69
Plate skills10 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-12
xwOBA preseason0.260
xwOBA current pace0.362
xwOBA rolling p500.271
Observed weight11%
xwOBA
0.166 0.216 0.271 0.326 0.375
wOBA
0.253 0.311 0.375 0.439 0.497
ISO
0.062 0.100 0.142 0.184 0.221
K%
16.3% 22.7% 29.8% 36.9% 43.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-12
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
69 Regression applied
Range Runs0.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-12
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.5% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
29
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
47
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

13 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Montes, Lazaro · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 23% of plotted batted ballsPull 23%Center field third: 62% of plotted batted ballsCenter 62%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-09-01 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 68.02026-09-01 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 27.02026-09-01 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -6.02026-09-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 44.02026-09-03 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 23.02026-09-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 2.02026-09-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 6.02026-09-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 4.02026-09-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 116.1 / LA 24.02026-09-09 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.2 / LA 34.02026-09-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 16.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 53.02026-09-11 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 110.8 / LA 31.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Montes, Lazaro · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 59%59%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 41%41%Zone contact: 69%69%Contact: 59%59%Hard hit: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances203----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3030.093 to 0.329+/- 0.118
ISO0.1210.019 to 0.195+/- 0.088
Barrel%4.1%0.2% to 5.1%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%36.5%6.5% to 38.6%+/- 16.0%
K%29.0%10.3% to 40.4%+/- 15.1%
BB%8.3%0.6% to 11.3%+/- 5.4%
BABIP0.2960.147 to 0.354+/- 0.104
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.9%
BB%0.6%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

10 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.8%
BB%0.8%
Barrel0.0%