Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.258 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.270 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.260 |
| Observed weight | 24% |
xwOBA
0.170
0.213
0.260
0.308
0.351
wOBA
0.288
0.323
0.362
0.402
0.437
ISO
0.006
0.039
0.075
0.111
0.144
K%
11.6%
16.5%
21.8%
27.2%
32.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
47
+22 vs proj
Barrel%1.5%
9
-32 vs proj
Bat speed75.7
99
Exit velocity90.5
78
Hard-hit%51.2%
93
+55 vs proj
K%25.0%
34
xBA0.285
19
xSLG0.369
8
xwOBA0.270
15
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Arm Runs1.1 · CF
Limited
Range Runs0.8 · CF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts14.0 · CF
81
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
22
Sprint Speed30.3 · CF
100
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.4% · rebadged research
95
Correct Decisions73.2% · rebadged research
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
64
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
64
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
37 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.070 |
| Sample | 68 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 204 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.095 to 0.327 | +/- 0.116 |
| ISO | 0.130 | 0.022 to 0.201 | +/- 0.089 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.2% to 5.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 9.2% to 38.9% | +/- 14.9% |
| K% | 23.8% | 7.7% to 34.0% | +/- 13.2% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 0.5% to 9.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.149 to 0.377 | +/- 0.114 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.1% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.1% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |