Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.257 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.300 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.216
0.245
0.278
0.311
0.341
wOBA
0.289
0.309
0.331
0.353
0.372
ISO
0.038
0.060
0.085
0.110
0.133
K%
17.4%
20.7%
24.4%
28.1%
31.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
39
Exit velocity90.1
75
Hard-hit%47.6%
84
+43 vs proj
xBA0.336
65
xSLG0.509
49
xwOBA0.300
44
BB%7.2%
32
Bat speed75.2
98
K%28.2%
22
-20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.8 · CF
93
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs1.1 · CF
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
74
Bolts56.0 · CF
98
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
39
Sprint Speed30.6 · CF
100
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
55
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
75
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
60 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| Sample | 209 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 204 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.095 to 0.327 | +/- 0.116 |
| ISO | 0.130 | 0.023 to 0.201 | +/- 0.089 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.2% to 5.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 9.2% to 38.9% | +/- 14.9% |
| K% | 23.8% | 7.7% to 34.0% | +/- 13.2% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 0.5% to 9.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.149 to 0.377 | +/- 0.114 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.1% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.1% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |